Winners and losers in assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ top leader, in Iran early Wednesday would appear to be an unvarnished win for Israel, which has been locked in war with Hamas since the Palestinian terror group invaded on 7 October.

But the killing, widely attributed to Israel even though the government has not claimed responsibility, is more complicated than that. Different groups within Israel stand to benefit more and less as a result, while the repercussions beyond Israel are even more widely varying.

Here’s our back-of-the-envelope analysis of who wins and who loses with Haniyeh’s death. 

Here are seven people, places and ideas that stand to benefit from Haniyeh’s death.

Israel: After 7 October, Israel vowed to eliminate Hamas’ leaders, wherever they are, as part of its larger goals of eliminating Hamas and returning the hostages. Ten months later, the pathway to many of those core objectives still feels tortuous or impassable: Israel continues to fight a gruelling war in Gaza with a mounting death toll, no clear endpoint and little by way of a “day after” plan. Hostage negotiations, meanwhile, have gone on for months as the number of killed captives has risen.

Killing Hamas’ senior officials — and particularly Haniyeh, the highest-ranking among those to be killed — provides a rare, unambiguous “mission accomplished” moment for the state. Video has circulated of Haniyeh celebrating 7 October as he watched footage of his Hamas foot soldiers attacking, terrorising and killing Israelis. Knowing he’s dead, likely at Israel’s hands, Is something many Israelis are celebrating, even as they remain concerned about the assassination’s fallout.

The particular circumstances of Haniyeh’s death, in a pinpoint strike within Iran, is a particular boon to confidence in Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus that was shaken by Hamas’ success on 7 October.

Benjamin Netanyahu: As his many critics and even some of his supporters would argue, Israel’s prime minister does not always have the same interests as the state he leads. Netanyahu has faced steep criticism for allowing 7 October to happen, for empowering far-right ministers in his quest to maintain a political coalition, and for derailing hostage-for-ceasefire talks. Polling showed his popularity rising in recent weeks, and Haniyeh’s death on his watch seems likely to shore up his approval.

Netanyahu, in televised remarks Wednesday night, did not acknowledge an Israeli role in Haniyeh’s death, but speaking generally and referring to other recent killings of high-profile figures, he said he had been vindicated. “For months there hasn’t been a week where I wasn’t told, at home and abroad, to end the war. ‘End the war because we have achieved all we can, this can’t go on forever,’” he said. “I did not give into these voices then, and I won’t give in to them today.”

Pro-Israel activists: Those who have taken on advocating for Israel abroad and on social media have seen the task get harder as the Gaza war has ground on. But compared to, say, Israel’s invasion of Rafah a few months ago in the face of international condemnation, Haniyeh’s assassination is relatively uncomplicated to defend. Media coverage of Haniyeh’s record, which includes overseeing attacks on civilians and enriching himself at the cost of the Palestinian people, is also renewing attention on Hamas’ role as the instigator of the current war and as a major factor in the suffering of Gaza Palestinians.

Israel’s right-wing extremists: On Tuesday morning, Israel was reeling from an incident where right-wing extremists broke into army bases in defence of soldiers charged with abusing Palestinian prisoners. The incident exposed divides between the government and the military, while the abuse scandal raised moral alarm bells. Now, while coverage of that incident is continuing in Israel, and is sure to be raised again, it has been overshadowed by Haniyeh’s assassination.

The Biden administration: President Joe Biden has seen his outspoken support for Israel tested during the war in Gaza, as he has pressed for limiting civilian casualties while still providing arms to Israel and defending the prosecution of the war. For months, critics of the administration have seen the Biden administration as complicit in Gaza’s mounting death toll. Haniyeh’s assassination, by contrast, puts administration officials in a relatively comfortable position: Israel achieved a key objective in a war Biden is backing without civilian casualties. U.S. officials say they are working to prevent a broader war but stand by Israel’s right to defend itself.

Qatar: Haniyeh lived in Qatar, traveling with relative ease to Iran and other places that are friendly to Hamas. 7 October made his residence politically problematic for the gulf state, which seeks a relationship with the West and does not enjoy its reputation as a sponsor of terror. Under pressure from the United States, Qatar reportedly threatened Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders there with exile if they did not seek an end to the Israel-Hamas war. Haniyeh’s death removes some of that pressure for Qatar, where Haniyeh is reportedly to be buried on Friday.

Yahya Sinwar: Sinwar, who heads Hamas’ military wing, sparred with Haniyeh over Hamas’ direction and tactics, with Haniyeh gaining a reputation as somewhat more moderate and willing to make short-term concessions. Now, Haniyeh is dead and Sinwar is alive, with one fewer obstacle to pursuing his own vision for violent Palestinian resistance.

And here are six people, places and ideas that stand to lose out.

Israeli hostages and a deal to release them: As recently as a few days ago, U.S. and Israeli officials indicated that they were close to a deal that could see Israeli hostages in Gaza released in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.

Haniyeh was negotiating on Hamas’ side; his death seems likely to undercut continuing talks around the more than 100 Israeli hostages who remain in Gaza, of whom dozens are thought to be alive. “How is David safer now?” one hostage family member asked on social media, even as she called Haniyeh “a monster of terror.” But some hostage families praised the killing, saying they hoped it would increase pressure on Hamas to make concessions. U.S. and Israeli officials say they do not want to abandon the negotiations, though John Kirby, Biden’s National Security Council spokesman, said, “Reports coming out of the region certainly don’t make it less complicated.”

Israelis in the north and south: Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from their homes since October 7th, with tensions simmering on two borders. Even so, dozens of Israelis have died from rocket strikes, including a dozen children and teens this week in Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights. With hostilities renewed, and reprisals seen as likely, safety in these regions continues to be compromised.

Travellers to and from Israel: Several major airlines had only recently resumed regular flights to and from Israel after pausing them following October 7th. Now, several of them are suspending the routes again, citing safety concerns about rising tensions.

Iran: Haniyeh’s murder in the centre of Tehran, hours after participating in public political ceremonies and reportedly in a building that was hosting Iran’s honoured guests, is undeniably humiliating for Israel’s most powerful nemesis. In April, Iran launched hundreds of rockets at Israel; almost all were shot down, and relatively little damage resulted. (One girl was severely wounded by shrapnel.) Now, on a day that was supposed to mark the strength of its government, the country has been shown to have major security vulnerabilities — including a possible undetected Israeli presence.

Hamas: This goes without saying. Haniyeh effectively ran the organisation; now it’s without a top leader. Israel killed Haniyeh’s top deputy in Beirut in January and he has not been replaced. The group is reportedly planning to meet in the coming days to appoint new leadership, but it’s clear that the war has weakened Hamas’ elite ranks and that the conditions are ripe for infighting about how to proceed.

Yahya Sinwar: Being the last leader standing has its downsides. Sinwar has long been a marked man for his role in 7 October and in planning Hamas attacks previously. Now, without Haniyeh occupying Israeli attention, he stands alone at the top of Israel’s hit list.