OPINION: Postwar political landscape of Gaza hinges on the fall of Hamas

For weeks, there has been talk of resuscitating a peace process that would lead to a two-state solution. The Biden administration has spoken of creating a ‘pathway for the establishment of a Palestinian state’ as part of a strategy for normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Lord Cameron has declared that the Palestinians need ‘a horizon towards a better future, the future of having a state of their own’. Their positions have chimed with mainstream EU opinion where a Palestinian state has long been a cherished goal.

All this sounds remarkably insensitive to an Israeli nation that continues to reel from the atrocities committed on 7 October.

Amid the wreckage of Israel’s southern communities, western demands for a Palestinian state appear to endorse another rejectionist terror regime that would be beholden to Iran and its proxies. The idea that this would bring long term security to the region is a fantasy.

Israelis are entitled to feel that Gaza was already a test case of Palestinian statehood, with Hamas’ genocidal rule a realisation of their worst fears, namely that surrendering land can only bring years of terror and warfare.

Premature recognition of Palestinian statehood is a reward for the very terrorism that has scuppered peace all these years. Moreover, it will tell Ramallah that there is no need to make meaningful concessions if statehood is now a given.

There is clearly a need to think about the postwar political landscape of Gaza. The shattered enclave will require reconstruction and investment, most likely from moderate Arab states, including those that signed the Abraham Accords. However, those states are unlikely to commit financial resources to Gaza unless they are certain that Hamas is defeated.

In thinking about a new Palestinian state in the territories, Lord Cameron would do well to learn from all the previous rounds of failed peace offers.

A Palestinian Arab state has been on the table on six or seven occasions since 1937, most recently when it was proposed by the Trump administration. Yet it has been rejected every single time by the Palestinian national movement.

One sticking point is the right of return, the unworkable idea that six million Palestinians have the right to live in Israel, even though the vast majority are not refugees and have never lived in the country. This idea is a major component of UNRWA’s ideology, rammed home daily to Palestinian children throughout the agency’s schools. UNRWA thus needs to be disbanded and replaced by the UNHCR.

Other major problems lie at the heart of Palestinian politics. Fatah encourages the same hatred of Israel and rejection of Jewish sovereignty that guides Hamas’ deranged ideology. Through its policy of ‘pay for slay’, the payment of stipends to the families of terrorists, the PA has created a  perverse incentive for young people to murder Israelis.

The PA has also spent years traducing Israel’s reputation in international bodies, including UNRWA and the ICC, while telling its own people that Israel is an illegitimate colonialist implant imposed on an indigenous population. This has created a febrile climate that accepts terrorists as martyrs and which glorifies violence.

A Palestinian Arab state has been on the table on six or seven occasions since 1937, most recently when it was proposed by the Trump administration. Yet it has been rejected every single time by the Palestinian national movement.

To make matters worse, the PA is also fundamentally corrupt and beset by human rights violations, as well as allegations of financial impropriety.

Reduced radicalisation within Palestinian society is crucial for creating a more benign political environment, one where talk of long-term stability and peace seems viable. One key component is persuading ordinary Palestinians that Jews have a right to self-determination and that Israel is going nowhere.

If polls are anything to go by, Israel too is likely to see a change of leadership. Netanyahu remains deeply unpopular, not just because of his polarising domestic policies but because he failed to prevent the 7 October atrocity. Yet Israel is a mature democracy that can replace its leaders in an open and transparent way; the PA is anything but.

The onus must be on challenging a revanchist, incitement-fuelled Palestinian culture, rather than imposing premature political solutions that are unworkable.

Dr Jeremy Havardi is a historian and director of the B’nai B’rith UK Bureau of International Affairs.